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As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.

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Furthermore, the text maintains obligations for monitoring and institutional cooperation, with the provision of aggregated and anonymised data to the competent authorities. It also provides for actions by the executive branch aimed at monitoring the impacts of betting, training health professionals, updating care protocols and periodically disseminating information on the effects of the activity. 

Application providers, digital platforms, hosting services and media intermediaries must remove irregular advertisements and campaigns after notification from the competent authority. The rapporteur’s version requires that the notification clearly and specifically identifies any content deemed irregular and ensures the right to a fair hearing and full defence. Journalistic, academic, parliamentary, artistic and opinion content are expressly protected. 

Operators and companies linked to them are also prohibited from acquiring, licensing, or exploiting rights to sporting events held in the country. In the area of ​​administrative penalties, the rapporteur’s text incorporates the new infractions into the existing sanctions system in Law 14.790 of 2023, which provides for fines of up to BRL2 billion ($392.8 million).