Witches Night

How to play Witches Night

Two operators alone – Kalshi and Polymarket – topped the combined $1 billion mark in NFL trading activity over the first six days of Week 1, according to numerous measures this week. During the period, Kalshi recorded NFL volume of $983.4 million, according to DeFi Rate, earning the pole position by a large margin. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs thrashed the Denver Broncos 31-10 on Monday Night Football, capping the largest week for prediction markets ever.

Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.

The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.

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“Consumers are being presented with more options for how they can participate in online gaming, creating a more competitive landscape where a seamless digital experience is increasingly becoming part of the value proposition,” said Jason Wolf, president of Fullstory, in a statement. “The brands that understand how consumers are navigating, comparing, and engaging with their platforms in real-time can identify where friction is getting in the way of trust and retention.”

A quarter of respondents said they use both prediction markets and sportsbooks depending on the event they’re considering wagering on. While the 35% reduced use figure may sound like a warning shot to gaming companies, a variety of other studies and surveys indicate that when bettors can choose between a sportsbook and an all-or-nothing exchange, they frequently opt for the former.

While sports event contracts are currently the tentpole category for the prediction market industry, data indicate bettors and traders are embracing other categories.

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A new type of Designated Contract Market (DCM) dedicated to crypto trading is among the elements being looked at. Selig’s approach would enable existing and perhaps new crypto exchanges to gain CFTC recognition and offer leveraged or margined digital asset products under rules tailored for the sector.

However, the latest filing does not create such a system right away. Its OIRA entry describes the action as a preliminary measure and says it is not economically significant under the relevant review criteria. No legal deadline has been listed for review either. 

It could, therefore, take quite a bit longer than the timing of the initial filing indicates. The CFTC would have to publish its action and solicit public comment after White House review before writing a formal proposed rule. Any final rule would have to undergo another review and comment period before it could take effect.